WASHINGTON — August was a very good month for the Chicago Cubs. September has started nearly as well. Sunday’s 14-1 victory over the Washington Nationals capped an 8-1 road trip, giving the Cubs a six-game winning streak and pushing them five games above .500 for the first time since May 21.
The Cubs have scored 99 runs in their past 10 games. Since 1901, they’ve topped that only once, when they scored 104 runs in a 10-game span in 1930.
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“The offense has been great,” manager Craig Counsell said. “Today I thought Isaac Paredes had some huge hits, Dansby (Swanson) obviously had a huge day. But up and down the lineup we had guys doing stuff. Unbelievable. You can’t ask for anything more on offense than we got on this trip.”
Swanson had four hits including a double, an RBI and two runs scored. Paredes had two hits and a walk, giving him a stretch of seven games where his on-base percentage is .516. Seiya Suzuki had two doubles and two walks, Pete Crow-Armstrong had three singles and caused chaos on the basepaths, and Ian Happ and Nico ho*rner had two hits apiece, as well.
“Nothing short of an awesome road trip for us,” Swanson said. “Coming out 8-1 and playing a lot of good baseball. It’s really, really good for us. Definitely a positive boost going into September with obviously what’s at stake with where we’re at. A lot of contributions from a lot of guys. Just overall a great team road trip.”
The @Cubs have scored 10+ runs 5 times in their last 10 games! pic.twitter.com/rdVqgb8DSl
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 1, 2024
The Cubs are just three games behind the final wild-card spot.
So how did the Cubs do this? Here are some aspects of the offense that looked very different in August compared to the rest of the season and whether they can be sustained into September.
The bottom of the lineup
What stood out to Counsell? It’s nothing different than what he’s been emphasizing for the past few weeks.
“It’s the group,” Counsell said. “So it’s like everybody doing something is what stood out. No question, contributions from Pete and the catchers stands out the most. But overall, it’s just the group. Offense is nine guys, and that’s why we had a productive offensive month.”
Along with Crow-Armstrong, Swanson, Miguel Amaya and Christian Bethancourt all had strong — arguably brilliant in some cases — Augusts. From the start of the season through July, the Cubs’ 7-8-9 spots in the lineup put up a 74 wRC+, 24th in baseball. In August, that cohort led all of baseball with a ridiculous 158 wRC+. That’s 20 points better than any team’s 7-8-9 performance in any month this season.
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Performing at this level just doesn’t seem sustainable. Could Swanson match his 119 wRC+ from August? Sure, that’s not unreasonable. His first game of September indicates that he’s feeling pretty good at the plate. But Amaya and Crow-Armstrong were both above 150. Even if they’ve turned a corner in their development, matching that type of success will take a herculean effort.
That doesn’t even touch on Bethancourt’s 252 wRC+ month. He’s been a great story and deserves a lot of love for the big hits he’s provided. But if he were to even be half as productive offensively in September, the Cubs would be thrilled.
Power surge
Coming into the season, the big concern with the Cubs was whether they would hit for enough power. Last season, even with the sixth-most runs scored in baseball, they were a middling team power-wise, posting a .167 ISO, 14th in baseball.
Through July this season, the Cubs’ ISO was .144, 21st in baseball. In August, it was .199, fourth for the month and 12th for any team in any month this year — unsurprisingly, power goes up from June through August across the league.
This number is almost certainly going down in September. That’s OK, too. The Cubs need to slug just enough, it doesn’t have to be at an elite level. They’ll certainly take that, though. There is some reason to be optimistic they could still have a solid power output even if surprise August power producers like Bethancourt, Crow-Armstrong and Amaya come down to earth.
Two regulars known for their power, Paredes and Michael Busch, were below average in that department in August. If they pick up the slack and other veterans like Happ and Cody Bellinger continue to tap into their power, perhaps this team can slug a bit in September, too.
Hitting heat
The Cubs struggled before against off-speed pitches and were pretty good against breaking balls in August. But they absolutely crushed fastballs. They hammered four-seamers, sinkers and cutters, giving them the second-best wOBA (.382) and ISO (.227) against those offerings in all of baseball that month.
If those heaters were in the zone? They became the best team in baseball in both those categories for August, with their ISO jumping to .270. That’s what good offenses should be doing. Hammering fastballs, especially those in the zone.
Tie ballgame!
Thanks, @ihapp_1 🤝 pic.twitter.com/nXR6eVgHvI
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 1, 2024
The problem is the Cubs just weren’t doing that enough in the first four months of the season. While teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees have been crushing heaters all year, the Cubs just started to do so.
It’s possible this trend won’t completely fade in September. Crow-Armstrong and Amaya are better players now. They’ve made real strides in their development. Swanson looks so much better, and hitting fastballs had been a strength of his the past few seasons. But overall, this may be one of the bigger keys to the offense in September. Keep hitting the fastball and perhaps they can be a strong offense in September once again.
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Producing with runners in scoring position
Ah, the dreaded runners in scoring position numbers. Perhaps the most maddening and volatile aspect of the game other than reliever production. The Cubs were awesome in April in this category, then terrible in May and June before getting good again in July and were once again brilliant in August.
So two bad months, two great months and one solid month. But here’s the huge difference between April and August. In April, the Cubs had a 138 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, batting .267. In all situations, it was 98 and .238. In August, they had a 137 wRC+ and .278 batting average with runners in scoring position. In all situations, they were at 120 and .260.
The gap between their overall production and the damage they did with runners in scoring position in April just wasn’t sustainable. That isn’t a real recipe for success. It was catching lightning in a bottle. While August’s production with runners in scoring position was higher than the overall numbers, it wasn’t nearly as dramatically skewed.
The key to September will be to just have good overall production. The prevailing belief across baseball is that often means a team will produce in all situations, leading to runs. There are extremes during a season, but these things tend to even out.
If the Cubs offense has legitimately improved throughout the season — not a wild thought given the addition of Paredes and the development of Crow-Armstrong and Amaya — then they should deliver no matter the situation.
Other numbers stand out in August. The Cubs had their best month in strikeout rate (20 percent), which makes sense after adding Paredes and having Crow-Armstrong improve in that area. The line-drive rate (22.1 percent) and ground-ball rate (37.2 percent) were both easily the best of the season. They also had 66 two-out RBIs, 18 more than in April and just eight fewer than in May and June combined.
This is a better and deeper lineup than it was at the start of the season. Can the Cubs repeat what they did in August? Well, the 155 runs they scored in 26 games would have put them on pace for nearly 966 runs in a 162-game season, so probably not. But if they’re better than in May and June and get the type of pitching they’ve had for much of the season, the wins should come at a good clip. The question after that will be, is it going to be enough to get them into October?
(Photo of Nico ho*rner sliding to avoid the tag of Drew Millas: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
Sahadev Sharma is a staff writer for The Athletic and covers the Chicago Cubs. Previously, Sahadev was a national baseball writer for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Chicago. Follow Sahadev on Twitter @sahadevsharma
